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Монголын хөгжлийн Зам

2020-05-20
Монголын хөгжлийн Зам

Ийм нэртэй нэгэн ном Монголчуудын хөгжлийн замыг зураглажээ. Монголбанкны ерөнхий эдийн засагч, эдийн засгийн ухааны доктор Д.Ган-Очирын манай улсын макро эдийн засгийн эрүүл мэндэд онош тавьж, тогтвортой өсөлт, хөгжлийн тохирох жорыг эрэлхийлсэн бүтээлүүд өдгөө энэхүү ном болтлоо 15 жилийг зарцуулсан байна. Өнөөдөр бид 36.8 их наяд төгрөгийн ДНБ үйлдвэрлэх хүртэл туулсан санхүү, эдийн засгийн харилцаа нь эртний төрт улсаас улбаатай бөгөөд бидний байгуулж ирсэн нийгмүүдэд эдийн засгийн амьдрал ямар өнгө төрхтэй байсан тухай түүхэн өгүүллүүдээс уг номны агуулга эхэлнэ.

Ардын хувьсгалын дараа Үндэсний банк байгуулагдсанаар Монголд орчин цагийн санхүүгийн тогтолцооны суурь тавигдсан гэж үздэг ч, түүнээс өмнөх түүх III зуун буюу Хүннү гүрний үед зоос, мөнгө хэрэглэж эхэлснээс эзэнт гүрний байлдан дагуулалт, худалдаа арилжаа хийж байсан зэрэг нь монголчууд бид мөнгө, санхүүгийн баялаг их түүхтэй болохыг гэрчилдэг. Ийнхүү түүхэн үечлэл бүхий хөгжлийн урт удаан замыг туулахдаа өнгөрсөнөөс сургамж авч, цаашид эдийн засгийн бодлогын түвшинд анхаарах асуудлуудыг дэвшүүлсэн тус номноос бид эдийн засгийн  бие даасан шийдвэр гаргах чадавхитай болж бэхжих хэрэгтэйг ойлгоно.

Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг улс төрийн циклтэй. Иймд бодлогын тогтвортой байдал алдагдах эрсдэлийг байнга дагуулж байгаа тул бид эдийн засгийн бүтцийн өөрчлөлтийг хийх шаардлага байгааг судлаач тодорхой хэлжээ. Авч үлдэх сургамжийг тухайд маш тодорхой дүгнэснийг доор тоочвол:

  • Улс төрийн болон эдийн засгийн хүртээмжтэй институци бүрдүүлэх
  • Гадаад шоконд эмзэг байдал, түүний үр дагаварыг бууруулах
  • Эдийн засгийн өрнөлийн үед нөөц хөрөнгө хуримтлуулах
  • Хөрөнгийн урсгалыг төсөв, мөнгөний бодлогоор бүрэн удирдахад туйлын хүнд тул макро зохистой бодлогын арга хэрэгслийг ашиглах
  • Богино хугацааны хэрэглээнээс илүүтэй урт хугацааны хөгжилд чиглэсэн бодит ажил хийх
  • Төсвийн сахилга батыг чанд мөрдөх
  • Гадаад, дотоод өрийн удирдлагыг сайжруулж, үр ашигтай хөрөнгө оруулалт дагадаг болгох
  • Төв банкны мөнгөний бодлого, үйл ажиллагааг үндсэн зорилтоо хангахад эн тэргүүнд чиглүүлэх
  • Зах зээл дэх төрийн ‘хэт’ оролцоог хязгаарлах, засаглалыг сайжруулах
  • Төгрөгийн гадаад валюттай харилцах ханшийг ‘хүчээр’ хамгаалахгүй байх
  • Урсгал тэнцэл нь эдийн засгийн барометр тул ашигтай болгоход бүх талаар анхаарах
  • Банкны салбарын тогтвортой байдлыг бэхжүүлэх – үндэсний банкны тогтолцоо нь хүчирхэгжиж, тогтвортой бус тохиолдолд эдийн засгийн тогтвортой байдал бүрдэхгүй
  • Өр, зээлийн харилцааны зохистой байдлыг хангах

Манай улс зах зээлийн нийгэмд шилжсэнээс хойших өнөөдрийг хүртэлх  хугацаанд эдийн засгийн хүндрэлтэй цөөнгүй тулж, зургаан ч удаа ОУВС-ийн хөтөлбөрийг хэрэгжүүлж ирсэн. Гэвч эдийн засгийн эмзэг байдал, богино давтамжтай эдийн засгийн хүндрэл, хямралд ордог байдал хэвээр байсаар байна. Гэтэл хүндрэл бэрхшээлд хүргэж буй нийтлэг шалтгаан нь ижил буюу дээрх үндсэн хүчин зүйлс болохыг тодорхой баримт, нотолгоонд тулгуурлан тайлбарлажээ. Тэгвэл эндээс бидэнд засаж залруулах алдаа нь тодорхой харагдаж байгаа тул алдаанаас залруулага руу, хоцрогдлоос хөгжил рүү хүрэх ямар боломж байгаа тухай бодит байдалд суурилсан шинжлэх ухааны үндэслэлтэй дүн шинжилгээнүүд хийжээ. Энэ тухайд цаашид баримтлах бодлогын “жанжин шугам”-ыг гаргажээ. Үүнд үндсэн цөөг тооны зарчмыг онцолсон байна.

Нэгдүгээрт, засаглал, институцийг бэхжүүлэхгүйгээр хөгжлийн боломжуудаа алдсан хэвээр байх тул энэ хэсэгт эмх цэгц бүхий эрх зүйн ‘хатуу’ зохицуулалт нэгэнт үгүйлэгдэж буй.

Хоёрдугаарт, бидний хувьд байгалийн баялгийн орлогын тогтвортой эх үүсвэрийг бүрдүүлж, хөгжих боломж байгаа тул баялгийн орлогоо бүрэн хянах, эрх зүйн болон татварын зохицуулалтыг хийх, хуримтлал үүсгэж, урт хугацааны хөгжлийн дэд бүтэц болон эдийн засгаа төрөлжүүлэхэд зарцуулах эс бөгөөс цаашдын хөгжлийн тухай бодоход хүнд болохыг хэлжээ.

Гуравдугаарт, эдийн засгаа төрөлжүүлэх, урт хугацааны хөгжлийн реформ хийх тухай юм. Энэ сэдэв бол эдийн засагч бүрийн санаа тавьдаг асуудал. Гагцхүү шийдэл нь юу вэ гэдэг нь гол асуудал юм. Харин эдийн засагч Д.Ган-Очир эдийн засгийн төрөлжилтийг бий болгохын тулд нөөцийн салбартай уялдаатай бусад салбаруудыг дэмжих шаардлагатай гэдгийг задлан тайлбарласан бөгөөд гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалт, худалдаа, эдийн засгийн бүтцийн төрөлжилтийг харилцан уялдаатай, тууштай хийж хэрэгжүүлснээс хойш 15 жилийн дараа эхний үр дүнгүүд тоон дээр харагдаж эхэлдэг тухай дурдаж, Монголын хөгжил энэ хэрээр хоцорч байна хэмээжээ.

Дөрөвдүгээрт, ядуурал болон тэгш бус байдлыг бууруулах, эдийн засгийн хүртээмжтэй өсөлтийг бий болгох шаардлагыг онцгойлон хөнджээ. Энэ тухай хэлсэн гол санаа нь төр харьцангуй өндөр орлоготой хэсгээс татвар авч орлого багатай зорилтот бүлэгт зайлшгүй шаардлагатай байгаа дэмжлэгийг үзүүлэх ёстой бөгөөд өсөн нэмэгдэх татварын тогтолцоонд шилжих, нийгмийн тусламж, үйлчилгээг зорилтот бүлэгт шилжүүлэх зэрэг нь энэ зорилтод хүрэх эхний зайлшгүй нөхцөл гэж үзжээ.

Тавдугаарт, төв банкны хараат бус байдлыг сахин хамгаалах хэрэгтэй бөгөөд одоо байгаа хууль, эрх зүйн зохицуулалтын хэрэгжилтийг хангахад онцгой анхаарах шаардлагатай. Хэрэв Монголбанк 2012-2016 онд хэрэгжүүлсэнтэй адил төсвийн шинж чанартай үйл ажиллагааг дахин давтах тохиолдолд Монголын эдийн засгийн дархлаа ноцтой суларч, эдийн засгийн аюулгүй байдалд ‘том’ хохирол учруулахыг сануулжээ.

Зургадугаарт, банкны салбарын тогтвортой байдалд онцгой анхаарах хэрэгтэй. Үүний тулд банкуудын мөчлөг дагасан үйл ажиллагааг бууруулсан, банкны системийн тогтвортой байдлыг хангах чиглэлд эрсдэлд суурилсан хяналт шалгалтыг хэрэгжүүлж, шаардлагатай тохиолдолд албадлагын арга хэмжээ авах, банкны системийг сайжруулах, макро зохистой бодлогыг хэрэгжүүлэх нь чухал болохыг тодорхой өгүүлжээ.

Долдугаарт, гадаад өрийн түвшин өндөрт хүрсэн өнөөгийн нөхцөлд санхүүгийн сахилга бат туйлын чухал болохыг онцолжээ. Ингэхдээ үндсэн секторуудын мэдээлэлд суурилсан Балансын аргачлалаар Монголын эдийн засгийг шинжлээд цаашид эдийн засгийн дотоод, гадаад тэнцвэрийг нэгэн зэрэг хангахад гадаадын урт хугацаатай, хөнгөлөлттэй санхүүжилт зайлшгүй шаардлагатай гэсэн дүгнэлтэд хүрчээ. 

Наймдугаарт, логистикийн салбарыг хөгжүүлэх нь өртөгийг бууруулах гол суурь болох тухай санаа юм. Манай улсад хүнс барааны үнэ өндөр хэлбэлзэлтэй. Гол хүнсний нэрийн бүтээгдэхүүнүүд нь улирлын шинж чанартайгаас хамаарч үнийн хэлбэлзийг үүсгэх гол шалтгаан болдог. Дээр нь импортын бараа бүтээгдэхүүний өртөгийн 25 хувь нь логистиктой холбоотой байдаг нь ч бас нөлөөлнө. Үүнээс үүдэлтэй өндөр инфляц бодлогын хүүг өсгөж, эдийн засагт хүүний ерөнхий түвшин буурахгүй байна. Иймд худалдан борлуулалтын үечилсэн олон шат дамжлагыг бууруулах, нөөц бүрдүүлдэг байх гэх мэт локистикийн үр ашигтай тогтолцоог бууруулснаар инфляц тогтвортой байх, улмаар хүү буурах, эдийн засагт бодит сектор сэргэх боломжтой тухай тодотгожээ.

Ийнхүү Монгол Улсын эдийн засагт  шийдлээ хүлээж буй олон сорилт, асуудлууд байгааг судлахдаа олон улсын сайн, муу туршлагуудтай харьцуулах замаар олон чухал асуудлыг хөнджээ. Тухайлбал, улсын өрийн дефолтын эдийн засаг, улс төрийн зардал ямар байдгийг, түүний сөрөг нөлөө, хэрхэн өрийн удирдлагыг боловсронгуй болгох, байгаа боломжуудаа ашиглаж хэрхэн тогтвортой өсөлтөд хүрэх, үүний тулд төсвийн бодлого дахь улс төрийн нөлөөг хязгаарлах, банкны хямралын зардлыг бууруулах, макро бодлогын хэрэгслүүдийг хэрхэн оновчтой ашиглах зэрэг бодлогын гаргалгаануудыг нарийвчлан гаргажээ. Үүгээрээ “Монголын хөгжлийн зам ном” нь дан ганц макро эдийн засгийн хүрээнд хязгаарлагдаагүй, Монголын эдийн засгийг бүхлээр нь авч үзсэн тул бид ер нь хаашаа явж байна вэ гэдгийг сонирхсон хэн бүхэнд бэлээхэн дэлгээтэй томоохон судалгаа бүхий судлагдахуун бүтээл болжээ.

Монголбанкны ОНБМТ-ийн ахлах мэргэжилтэн Д.Ариунаа

 

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